Khamis, 02 Ogos, 2012.
Perilous in Perak
thesniper | Aug 01, 2012 | Comments 0
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Sakmongkol
Perak has 24 parliamentary seats. In 2008, BN won 13 of those seats. Most of them were won on the slimmest of margins. So the argument goes, the opposition also won on slim margins.
The counter argument is, the victory by the opposition was won on the courage of convictions while the victory of BN was won as a result of the erosion of confidence.
These are 2 different things. One won as a result of convictions is hard to slip back while the one won as a result of erosion of convictions is extremely difficult to sustain.
PARLIAMENTARY SEAT 2008 SUPPORTFOR PAKATAN(%) GE13 PROJECTED SUPPORT FOR PAKATAN (%) EXPECTED WINNER
1 GERIK 34 41 BN
2 LENGGONG 35 42 BN
3 LARUT 46 53 PR
4 PARIT BUNTAR 60 67 PR
5 BAGAN SERAI 53 60 PR
6 BUKIT GANTANG 50 56 PR
7 TAIPING 60 65 PR
8 PADANG RENGAS 44 52 PR
9 SUNGAI SIPUT 50 55 PR
10 TAMBUN 44 52 PR
11 IPOH TIMUR 69 75 PR
12 IPOH BARAT 65 72 PR
13 BATU GAJAH 71 75 PR
14 KUALA KANGSAR 45 51 PR
15 BERUAS 52 59 PR
16 PARIT 42 49 PR
17 KAMPAR 45 52 PR
18 GOPENG 56 62 PR
19 TAPAH 42 49 PR
20 PASIR SALAK 44 51 PR
21 LUMUT 45 53 PR
22 BAGAN DATOK 43 51 PR
23 TELOK INTAN 50 55 PR
24 TANJUNG MALIM 41 48 PR
Will the people of Perak forget that during the reign of Zamri, he has given out more land than Nizar did when the latter was MB? Many landless people who were without land titles and who have worked the land got it during Nizar’s stint as MB. What wasn’t told was that more Malays got their titles too during Nizar’s time.
During UMNO’s time the grant of land was the hijacked prerogative of UMNO divisional heads, UMNO reps and merciless Pengerusi JKKK. During Zamri’s time, more land was given to companies and cronies rather than people.
The people of Perak have never forgiven the manner in which a government of their choice has been usurped by UMNO though extra legal means. Whatever the court says, the general perception was, their government of choice was snatched away from them by dirty means.
The people of Perak are not oblivious to the rampant corruption of BN leaders. The laundry list of corruption is too long to be repeated here and indeed much has been revealed in the alternative media.
Will the Perak people be swayed with the oft repeated argument that, if PR takes over they will do the same things like what UMNO/BN does?
If UMNO assumes this, they must be thinking that Perak people are dullards and impervious to the injustices and corruption. UMNO assumes others are like them who are motivated by predatory instincts. No one can do any worse than UMNO does.
People can see that every Pakatan administration has scored better than all other BN administrations on almost every measure. Balancing the budget, achieving budget surpluses, increasing state revenues, carrying out people friendly programs. They do, while UMNO talks and talks. Doing and talking BS are like sky and earth.
With an allowance of 5% regain by UMNO and BN, PR should still have 7% reserve to win all but 2 of the parliamentary seats in Perak.
The possible outcome at GE13 after discounting 5% in favor of UMNO/BN as a results of deception, corruption, cheating etc.
SEAT 3% SWING 7% SWING
BN PR BN PR
1 GERIK 1 0 1 0
2 LENGGONG 1 0 1 0
3 LARUT 0 1 0 1
4 PARIT BUNTAR 1 0 0 1
5 BAGAN SERAI 1 0 0 1
6 BUKIT GANTANG 0 1 0 1
7 TAIPING 0 1 0 1
8 PADANG RENGAS 1 0 0 1
9 SUNGAI SIPUT 0 1 0 1
10 TAMBUN 1 0 0 1
11 IPOH TIMUR 0 1 0 1
12 IPOH BARAT 0 1 0 1
13 BATU GAJAH 0 1 0 1
14 KUALA KANGSAR 0 1 0 1
15 BERUAS 0 1 0 1
16 PARIT 1 0 0 1
17 KAMPAR 0 1 0 1
18 GOPENG 0 1 0 1
19 TAPAH 0 1 0 1
20 PASIR SALAK 0 1 0 1
21 LUMUT 0 1 0 1
22 BAGAN DATOK 1 0 0 1
23 TELOK INTAN 0 1 0 1
24 TANJUNG MALIM 1 0 0 1
TOTAL 9 15 2 22
***Sumber Berita Dari: http://mediaperak.com/
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